Iowa Caucus Al Jazeera February 1, 2016 9:00pm-11:01pm EST
precincts reporting. ali, so this has been at least for the last 20 minutes, this is what we've seen. >> that's right. what you haven't seen yet is pall county, des moines, where that demographic will change a little bit perhaps to bernie sanders. we know it's early. what's more interesting is look down the ticket on both sides, on both sides, the democratic ticket, martin o'malley not registering a percent yet. what donald trump and ted cruz are doing, after that rand paul. the more establishment candidates not registering, virtually not registering at all. in fact you don't see mike huckabee on that list, john kasich, you see carly fiorina,
just stretching up. some of those candidates aren't even here today john. john kasich, jeb bush, chris christie, they didn't even come here. they are in new hampshire right now today getting ready for the next contest on february 9th. the battle for top of spot still playing out still too early to tell. we mo who the likely winners are on both of these contests. on the democratic site it's one osides it's oneof two people. and republican still yet to be seen john. >> there were problems from the results with the vote totals from the caucuses. have you heard of any problems yet? >> no, no ballots should be leaving the balloting places, so on the democratic side there aren't ballots, it is a hand vote. sends in the data, what they'll do ask the microsoft can capture whether or not there were 250
people in the caucus, they can't register 275 votes, but there are -- it's still subject to rounding errors and counting errors and things like that. what we should be able to do is get results in in a more speedy fashion. what are your numbers showing? about 25% of the democrats in right now and about 17% roughly, your numbers are a little bit different than mine because we are using different sources. it's moving fairly quickly john. >> david, what makes this contest in iowa so important going forward? >> let's start with the democrats because again these are the numbers, these are representing the delegates, hillary clinton with 140, bernie sanders 125. keep in mind that the biggest counties where bnders expecting to do well, iowa city for university of iowa, why state is located, these numbers haven't come in so these numbers are
going to be misleading. on the republican side, a knowledge shipup between two republican candidates, donald trump and ted cruz, hoping that a guy like marco rubio or jeb bush or chris christie can somehow break in to the top tier. these results after a year, the candidates are meeting the people, looking them in the eye. and that's why tonight's judgment is so important for the rest of the world. ♪ this land is your land ♪ this land is my land. >> it has already been one of the quirkiest and unpredictable presidential races in decades. >> what the hell do we have to talk so much, just do it right? >> the results will begin to answer some key questions. how vulnerable is the political establishment? >> you know before it was called
obamacare it was called hillary care. >> and what's the depth and duration of voter anger? for the candidates a win or surprisingly strong finish tonight will mean a bonanza of media attention. and voters who are beginning to pay attention, in the republican race the focus is on donald trump. >> unless i win i would consider it a big fat beautiful and by the way very expensive waste of time. >> the celebrity and billionaire leading every gop national and statewide pole. >> by the way, we have the biggest crowds by far. >> if he wins the caucuses, trump, according to ted cruz, could win the table. >> if he went on to win new hampshire new hampshire l ah as well, there is a good chance he could be unstoppable and be our
nominee. >> cruz who shut down two years ago antiestablishment alternative to trump. judge if ted cruz wins then he's gone after the emperor and won. >> among the insider candidates, florida senator marco rubio, his top establishment rivals including jeb bush, chris christie an have certainly formr iowa e-iowa caucuses winners, mike huckabee and rick santorum, a poor finish would likely mean the end of the road. in a democratic race hillary clinton is trying to avoid a surprising set back. her campaign is better organized and funded than eight years ago.
this nomination race was supposed to be a carolina cake walk. >> stick with the experience. stick with the ideas, that will actually work for our country. >> clinton's pragmatism though has faced a strong challenge from the progressive passion he embodied by democratic socialist bernie sanders. >> the status quo is simply not acceptable. we are going to make fundamental changes in our economy and our political life. >> if sanders wins tonight he will likely build on his lead in new hampshire, surge in other states and all but guarantee that clinton faces a long and dangerous nomination fight. >> joy in the political revolution, thank you all very much. [cheering and applause] >> and those revolutionaries in the sanders campaign are already trying to spin some of the results. pointing out the fact that the race is as close as it is with the numbers 53-47 with a lot of
precincts still to go that is something of a moral victory to bernie sanders given that hillary clinton is the democratic establishment candidate yet she's on the defense against a socialist who talks like he wants to burn down wall street. there are the numbers on the republican side. ted cruz and donald trump. ted cruz is perhaps the most hated republican in washington by his own party and donald trump the ultimate outsider. bad news that you have two people at the top and a fourth ben carson coming in there as well who has no political experience, again the republican party's looking for their antedote, their closing behind, now it looks like trump, cruz and rubio. john. >> if you put cruz and drurchl and ben carson together, so-called outers, you've got
abig portion of the polling in iowa. >> 65% wanted soabl who was either hated by the establishment and hated in the senate or two political candidates no political experience. that's why the republican leaders and the party apparatus are so nervous about the direction and anger that the republican party has. >> by the way ben carson is going to florida getting ready to leave iowa i guess after he saw the results. or maybe he planned it already. >> where a lot of people go to die, john. >> or have fun. >> or from campaigns, too. >> you had to say that. one of the biggest questions about the iowa caucuses is why iowa? the state's population is obviously smaller than the city of los angeles but being first it carries an outsized influence in presidential politics. mary snow is here with a look at the iowa caucuses and how they
work. mary. >> quirky is a word you've used to describe the iowa caucuses. democrats and republicans have their own systems. republicans have a secret ballot and the process for democrats is more physical, why iowa has a prominent role? you have to go back more than four decades. yes, it's known that iowa is the first in the nation to weigh in on the presidential race but less well-known are the quirks behind its caucus system. starting why it became such a draw for presidential hopefuls. in 1972 it was only by chance that democrats in iowa scheduled their caucus earlier than everyone else. >> good morning how are you? >> 1976, republicans in the state joined them. >> i'm running for president. >> jimmy carter did well that year in iowa and went on to win the white house, iowa cemented its first in the nation status. and drake university's dennis
goldford says with it comes a process unlike other primaries where caucus goers cast their vote over a day. >> you've got to be prepared to spend possibly a couple of hours there, you've got to hope there's no blizzard, the car starts and there's nobody sick in the family. >> public places like churches schools and libraries are the place used in caucus sites in the 1681 precincts. in remote rural areas a caucus might be held in a private home. once night rules are different depending on the party. republicans have the more straightforward process. after hearing from surrogates for candidates they write their choice on a piece of paper. voters are counted and reported to precinct officials. for democrats it's more complicated. >> people physically have to stand up for their preferred candidate. so in this year's three-person
race, they will say everybody in favor ever hillary clinton go to that corner. everybody in favor of bernie sanders, go to this corner. everybody in favor martin o'malley go to that corner and everybody who is still undecided undeclared go to another corner. then these are called preference groups. >> in order to be viable, a preference group has to have a certain percentage of support of those present at the caucus. if it doesn't meet the threshold, the group is dissolved and others try win over its members. >> people are enticed to go over, even if somebody is in a preference group for say hillary clinton, sanders group may say, come on you don't really support her you want to support bernie. there is a lot of horse trading and cajoling like that. it's interesting to watch. >> but iowa has its pit falls and iowa had egg on its face in 2012 when party rulers declared
mitt romney the winner. >> mitt romney with 274 votes. >> only to announce two weeks later there had been a miscount. rick santorum was the actual winner and many argue that mistake cost santorum all important momentum. they're making sure that history doesn't repeat itself. and the republican caucus in 2012 showed how razor thin it was. santorum had won by 34 votes, two weeks later. >> it took two beeks. all righweeks.we're only talkina relatively small number of voters right? >> right. when you look at both parties it's a little bit more than 100,000 each in each party. the exception was 2008, barack obama won on the democratic side, there was record turnout
among democrats and evening then when you counted all of the people who turned out both republican and democrat it only added up to about 350,000. >> it was close four years ago, it could be close again tonight. duarte geraldino is at drake university in des moines where the caucus is about to break up right qatar? qatar? duarte? >> i don't want to make too much noise but behind me you can see how packed we are. the suits are standing up and they are going to literal move in the direction of the candidate they represent. to give you an understanding you how crowded this ream is there are about 252 seats in this room and it was booked on the basis of turnout during the last caucus. right now they had a count in this room. 485 people in this room. that's almost twice the original number it gives you again an indication of how many people
are interested in this particular race. now this particular precinct had some added benefits. martin o'malley did come personally here to speak with his supporters, to have a higher representation. based on that number they have that 15% breaking point. in order for a candidate to be viable they need to have 73 votes, so right now there's a lot of talking right now persuading people to join one side or the other. this should go on for about a half an hour before they decide what's the next step. >> clearly, they're not break pickup. but they haven't even decided on the final numbers at drake university and looks like they're going to be there for a while. we'll get back to you duarte, thank you very much. , the news agencies are getting a little different read of the results. ali velshi.
>> i certainly recall last time the iowa caucuses i was on tv until 3, 4, 5:00 in the morning. the old system was that they would phone in the results, and that's how it would all get tabulated. it's hard to believe in 2000 and anything that that's how we do anything. microsoft has partnered with both parties, there's a donkey here and an elephant had. microsoft is giving all of the captains in the precincts, the people who are supposed to report the result an app on their phone. it's got a two-step identification, they determine that they're there, they put in the results per precinct. the app does a little bit of math so it will tell them whether or not they have put in more votes than the people who are actually in the room and that then will be transmitted efficiently to the right parties.
microsoft is not at all involved in the counting or tabulating of the results but they are involved in efficiently transmitting that information in a way you would expect it to be done in 2016. i had a question with danel lewen to explain how this worked. >> for instance, if there were 100 in the room and someone tried oinput a number greater than 100, the mobile device said that wouldn't seem right, that wouldn't allow for those kind of anomalies. on the other side, if there is a problem identified at the party headquarters before they release the results they can phone back to the precinct and ask and verify any kind of question that might look odd. >> so john once the stuff is translated or transmitted using the app, to the central party, the party, the state party both the republicans and the democrats, remember microsoft is working with both of them, will have to tabulate and certify the results send them back
electronically to microsoft and they will be displayed here on this screen behind me. this is how we're going to get the information. it's not going to be haphazard, we're not going to be waiting for phoning people and finding out what's going on and frankly if this all comes together and works properly john, i am going to be in bed much earlier than i was the last time there was an iowa caucus. john. >> all right ali, thank you, jeannie joe and david are back. jeannie i want to start with you. if the numbers are correct and ted cruz wins with donald trump second the polls would be totally wrong right? >> the polls would be wrong. the des moines register poll is the gold standard. clearly trump was in the lead. but there are some troubling signs for ted cruz. turnout for first time caucus goers is very many higher and evenly for trump and cruz, this
may be a bad sign for cruz as more numbers come in. we'll have to wait and see. >> just 22% of the precincts reporting. it's a very early night. >> again it's very early still and plenty of time for candidates to spin it the way they need to spin to it their supporters. if you are donald trump supporters, we'll say wait and see, there are lots of new voters. >> lots of things we do when we're off camera trying to figure out why it is the democrats have soful more precincts reporting david than the republicans. can you explain why david? >> you lean on me. >> we do all the time. >> a representative from each campaign gets to speak at the caucus. so in some of the places like des moines and the larger cities you will have 11 speeches, a representative from every campaign who will speak saying here is why you should vote for my candidate, sometimes in these republican candidates it takes a
while when you have a field that large. likewise with the democrats the reason some are faster it's a very simple three candidates and then they go to the side of the room. >> i thought we were told the democrats would have a more complicated process because they argued about who they are going to vote for but apparently not. >> apparently it is going to be complicated in larger precincts, des moines, iowa city, cedar rapids. when you have 500 people show up those are the precincts to report. report last. >> we'll come back. how some candidates are hoarding the evangelical vote, don't go away.
the media center in des moines, iowa. you can see almost ail the counties have reported now. on the right the republican, we got about 25%, about half as many of the counties. ted cruz still leading, donald trump number 2. marco rubio in the third position by less than ten points. let's go to michael shure he is at one of the caucuses right now. michael what are you learning about the rubio camp? >> well, you know i've spoken to the rubio camp. i spoke to somebody a deputy in their communications department ali say they are very pleased how it's going tonight the response they're getting. they're doing entry polls, also spoke to a precinct captain one of the bigger republican caucuses in waterloo, they say they are very impressed with how rubio is going. very possibly one of the stories we come out tomorrow with is not just marco rubio finished third but a strong third, which bodes
interestingly. ben carson as john siegenthaler said a while ago has gone home. lot to read into that. he was once leading in the poms, hipolls, he is only going home because there is a storm coming in and he wouldn't be able to fly and he needs to change. heading to a campaign, this would be the end of rick santorum presidential campaign, rick santorum never really resonated with the same evangelicals that gave him a win four years ago. the evangelical vote is so important here, i got a chance to spend some time with that voting segment a few weeks ago. >> only two weeks ago ted cruz surged in iowa, jumped 21 points to the front of the gop pac.
but in an apparent turn around since then beginning with his convocation at jerry fallwell's liberty university, donald trump seems to have closed the evangelical gap. >> we're going to protect christianity, i don't have to be politically correct. >> you say father god please continue. >> as for cruz he's doubling down on the faithful. >> awaken the body of christ that we might pull back from this abyss. >> abortion along with marriage equality and what they call religious liberty are of utmost importance to iowa's strong evangelical christian voting block. >> is there any wiggle room on these voters? >> for evangelical voters no, i don't think there's a lot of wiggle room. >> pastor warren hunsberger leads this group, while some
other evangelical minister seem to lead their congregation, he doesn't. >> will you tell them who you're voting for? >> never, never hear that from me on purpose. >> but he does welcome candidates to his church should they call. something that ted cruz and carly fiorina both did recently. hunsbreerg saw isberger saw it n opportunity to make conclusions on their own. >> it seems crazy that any of us can be separated from our faith our values when we enter the political process. >> in 2012 it was rick santorum, both lost the nomination and both are not even polling well enough omake it on to the main
debate stage. >> iowa is never meant to be the stage of we're going to decide who is going to be the eventually nominee. it's the winnowing out process. >> a long time political operative here, he understands evangelical voters and their expectations. he sees a difference in the way they approach politics now as opposed to when he began. he sees new evangelicals as more demanding. >> politics is not about perfection. it doesn't mean you hold the candidate's feet to the fire and get them to answer the tough questions. you won't see jesus christ name on the ballot any time soon. >> tracing its roots to the upstart candidacy of pat robertson in 1988. finished second in iowa that year alerting the party to an untapped and vital voting block. >> these are very, very faithful caucus goers. they really show up don't miss
the caucuses. >> they don't often miss church on sunday. republican candidates know that very well. and you know ali as i stand in this room as roosevelt high school a democratic caucus not a lot of evangelical voters in here. behind me they are still trying to take the o'malley voters and the uncommitted to the other side. iit will be part of the postscript when we hear that tomorrow. ali. >> michael shure in des moines. let's go back to the studio, john. >> trying to figure out the difference between number of precincts reporting for republicans which is smaller than the number reporting for democrats. david might have an answer. >> the state republican party reporting its website both to collect the information from the various precincts and to pass them along publicly, that website crashed a half hour ago. an hour into the caucus, the
website went down. it is still not clear if it's been fixed, the numbers seem to be catching again but the point is, there was such interest within iowa and also externally that the website came down and that's one of the reasons why the numbers on the republican side are so small. >> former republican jack cason joins us from washington, d.c. just give me your reaction to the numbers again jack. >> you know i.t. looks like cruz is holding the way the polls show that he's on top it's tight with trump, rubio is in third and that's what the polls have been telling us. i think the story right now is that carson in a solid fourth place. he's not down in the low single digits the way so many of the other familiar names are, huckabee, bush, kasich, so forth.think right now, maybe the story is that this breathes some life into the ben carson candidacy. if these numbers hold we've got
about 25% in. it's not enough to draw any conclusions and geographically, i'm not certain which precincts have reported or which caucuses have reported and there are certainly some trump strongholds some cruz strongholds some kasich strong holds and so forth, that's going to have a big determination on the numbers but the reality is so far even though night is young, cruz numbers have been holding consistent with all the national polling firms. >> i just want to get your reaction to the democratic race right now. there was a lot of talk about hillary clinton. she was losing ground in iowa, bernie sanders on the rise. take a look at the numbers now. she's been solid throughout evening. we've got 53% of the precincts reporting. she's ahead 51 to 48. what happened? >> you know, i don't know. i would suspect that hillary clinton probably has a better ground game than bernie sanders. i think bernie sanders and donald trump had that excitement
factor a great energy but i think when it comes down to iowa politics, how many people do you have on the ground in the 99 counties really makes a difference. and this is hillary clinton -- it is not her first time in town, you know? she knows it, she knows it from when she she ran in '08 and wher husband ran. more than 55% have reported in now. >> more than 55% for the democrats. if you are in the rnc tonight and looking at those numbers and the republican national committee had hoped that they would have a nominee in the next month or so, that was a year back. what are they thinking tonight? >> well, i think if you think about what happened in '08 in the republican caucuses in iowa there were about 120,000 votes. something like six or 700,000
volted in the democrat caucus. you had a nontraditional exciting fresh-faced candidate in barack obama. now it appears that's what trump is doing and cruz and carson. you have these nonwashingtonian candidates. you go into south carolina, new hampshire, nevada, the sec super-tuesday, if these new voters flock to the party i think it's going to be a great thing. i think the race will be settled which may or june but it can go on the way the democrat primary went on and on in '08 between hillary clinton and barack obama and it did not hurt the party. i think you know this kind of thing in washington, so many people want to set the rules. they're uncomfortable with the exciting dynamic of the constitution in action but i think it's a good thing for party and the country. >> all right jack we'll get back to you.
i just want to ask you jeannie based on what you've seen tonight what are you surprised the most tonight? >> i'd have to say on the republican side i'm surprised that reu rubio, granted we are y at 25% reporting, that rubio is in third. ted cruz hitting rubio hard making sure he didn't come in a close third to donald trump i think cruz is hoping. but that's one of the big stories tonight. on the democratic side, looks like we don't know yet turnout has been strong yet hillary clinton has held her own. that may reflect a lot of things but certainly i think jack is right. it reflects that she had the ground game and the organization in iowa, to pull this off, if it holds, we are only at 55%. >> tier candidates in new hampshire now, i believe we have a picture of jeb bush who said good-bye to iowa, like some of
the other candidates did as well. but if this holds where does the fight end up in new hampshire? >> depends on how much money you have of course. jeb bush has raved a lot of raif money. for john kasich, chris christie, they don't have a strong showing in new hampshire it's going to be hard to pull it ooff. >> to put his money in new hampshire, you have got the same thing with john kasich and chris christie. if marco rubio is the establishment candidate who has done the best, bush, kasich not going to get any easier for marco rubio because he may get rid of some of the candidates in iowa but he's walk into a hornet's nest come new hampshire. >> let's get back toll action and ali.
>> a lot of people are talking about the influence of millennials, and why they like these candidates, the influence on bernie sanders campaign. we sent duarte geraldino to look at this phenomenon and here's what he found. >> just days before the caucus, training for the caucus those who have not been to one, a hands-on lesson, what happens in a caucus. iowa is a farming state. many hold broadly diverse views. >> there's a hugely disproportionate amount of people of color locked up. we consider this one of the biggest injustices of our generation. the suffering that my black brothers and sisters are enduring, it is heartbreaking. >> we went through september 11th and we went through barack obama being elected and
the invasion of iraq and the financial crisis. i think those things shape how we look at the world. >> i think biggest issue would be a free market obviously. >> richard, logan and reese, faces of young iowans. he says the supreme court's historic ruling allowing gay marriage makes it easier for him to recruit supporters who are fiscally conservative but socially liberal. >> i think more millennials in the middle will be able to switch. you feel this is not as much of an issue and therefore the party's more welcoming? >> yes, absolutely. i feel like gay marriage is a big dividing issue, big wedge issue especially for millennials. >> more welcoming like steve and richard. >> got married four, five months ago, five months ago almost, had
the honeymoon bought the house now it's the caucus. we've been go go go go go. we're ready to kind of sit and put our feet up and wow we're married. >> richard is a millennial building a life with his new husband steve. he's worried that the issue could be a risk to his future. >> we have to make that work but for some reason our federal government doesn't do that. i believe if we don't get the numbers right in the next decade my kids are not going to have the life that i want them to have that the american dream says they should have. >> reese is president of drai de university young democrats. >> i go to school full time and work, i still can't make it. i was born white, middle class, private schooled all my life and
even i feel effects of this, let alone the minority population and born into poverty who feel it worse. >> as a generation they're considered unreliable voters. in the past they just haven't turned out big numbers. the caucus process is not just a game of numbers, geography and timing play obig roll, held in january, college students are on break not on campus. this year it will be different, the impact will be licted to lio several pockets around the state. >> director of the iowa caucuses project at drake. >> when you have a few precincts that are heavily heavily populated by college students their votes will matter a great deal in those precincts but statewide that's unlikely to have a major outcome on the vote overall. >> but she also seems to leave
the door open. it could be different this time. because of millennials ability to influence and organization online. >> if you could put political motivation under the butts of young people it brings a lot of magic. >> and that was duarte geraldino. i want to talk to jennifer lawless now, professor, author of several books including "running from office, why young americans are turned off to politics." jennifer london good to see you thank you for being with us. in every one of these campaigns there seems to be a home for young people a place to which they gravitate. it was barack obama it was ron paul one time, it's not happening for rand paul but it's bernie sanders in this campaign and to some degree donald trump. tell me is that a phenomenon or
are these unrelated things that young people tend ofind these independent candidates who they like? >> young people definitely migrate towards candidates that don't represent the establishment and this generation in particular, we're seeing that with trump and sanders. because today's young people look around and all they've ever known is a dysfunctional washington, gridlock, stalemate, the inability to get things done. so they're particularly drawn to candidates who want to do something in a completely different way, they want to change the rules of the game. >> do they get disoriented, those who voted for barack obama, and didn't get change they wanted or, this person speaks in plain language, they seem to want to get things done and they're not part of the establishment what mows resonates with them? >> it's a little bit of both. in part the people that thought that barack obama was going to deliver crazy change over the
course of the last eight years and filed to do so might be turned off. and what we found in our research is those people now think that electoral politics is not the most effective way to solve problems. but for a new crop of young people the messages of candidates like trump or cruz or sanders or even rubio, candidates that don't look like the traditional establishment that don't look like politics as usual seem to generate a sense of hope and optimism among young americans. >> you've also written books about women and the role women play in politics. one of the things you've noted is women were not monolithic in the same way, why are women not supporting hillary clinton en masse, they are voting for the same issues that men are. >> that's exactly right. women are more likely than men to support democratic candidates, there's been a substantial gender gap since
1980 with women more likely than men to support the democrats. but among the women there is a lot of variation and in a democratic primary not all women are the same and one women in particular like millennials in general supporting bernie sanders. >> professor jennifer lawless good to see you, thank you for being with us. john. >> thank you ali. we want to go to michael shure at roosevelt high school where the democratic caucus continues. we're about an hour and 45 minutes in, michael. >> it is continuing and just to paint a picture for you john, you have the hillary clinton people over on one side, behind me are what's left of the martin o'malley people. they are not viable, they are staying together, including one girl who has given up an entire year to work for martin o'malley. but just now some of them went over to the bernie sanders side, this is just illustrative of what the caucus is like and how
it moves, very slowly when there is this many people, 272 people they're countering. even though they are not viable some of these people are still sticking with martin o'malley in the middle. john. >> thank you it's very close between hillary clinton and bernie sanders, 51%, 49%, 65% of the precincts reporting but as david schuster points out there are a lot of colleges, precincts in college towns where they don't have a report yet from those precincts. and those might go for bernie sanders. the other thing about the republican caucuses is that 49% now, it's 29% for cruz, 25% for trump and 21% for rubio. very much a three man race and still half the vote to be counted or the caucuses to be counted. we'll take a quick break and we'll get back to the coverage,
>> welcome back everyone to our conk of the iowa caucuses. let's take a look at the numbers, republican contest we have 56, 55% of the volt in and it really is a three man race. with ted cruz he's been leading most of the evening with 29%, donald trump 25% and marco rubio at 21%. let's look at the democratic side. there we have hillary clinton who is 51% to bernie sanders 49%. it's a tight race, and a tough race tonight. there have been a lot of republicans who were speculating about the possibility anyway of a brokered convention this summer. it's something that hasn't happened in decades. elizabetlibby casey is in washin with that story. libby. >> it's a long time between now and then but establishment republicans are talking about the possibility of a brokered convention and that talk is
itself significant. it shows discomfort in the party between the two men lieding the race ted cruz and donald trump and concerns about part unity. >> mr. chairman and delegates i accept your nomination for president of the united states. >> conventions, the splashy stage of the party nominees but what if it's not this predictable? >> this is not a unified republican party. >> a split between establishment republicans and so-called outsiders, like donald trump, he means the nomination will still be in flux come the republican convention. >> i'm considering that we're already seeing the possibility of a brokered convention. >> that's when the leader
doesn't have the backing of the majority of the delegates. it was president jerald ford. wept on twent on to lose the el. michelle bernard. >> if the party looks bad to the government it raises your chances of losing. >> early primary states like donald trump. >> in the event that donald trump happens to win the iowa caucuses, it is very certain he could run the table in the first two or three primary contests. >> that's not comfortable to establishment republicans, the national review has come out against trump and gop leaders met privately to talk about the possibility of a brokered
convention. >> they wouldn't want to show bias to one candidate or defense any one candidate and they've got to show openness to the choice of the american people. >> reporter: even if an outsider candidate like donald trump or ted cruz wins an early lead there could be a with iter convention fight, wild card, superdelegates at the convention who can vote however they want. >> there's a chance they won't pledge their support for donald trump and might pledge to ted cruz or marco rubio or chris christie. >> whether gop leadership will agree or not. a name that could be floated at the convention that someone is not even running for the republican nomination yet. picture a michael bloomberg the form he new york city mayor who
is pondering another run. it may come down to whether these superdelegates find these candidates more appealing than donald trump or ted cruz, unease among establishment ranks over what the next few months could bring. john. >> thank you libby. i want to talk about marco rubio tonight, better than expected right? >> better, he got that big imormt a couplendorsement a cous ago but to be so close to donald trump and ted cruz, is huge for him. if he maintains a 20 plus% mark tonight he's in great shape for new hampshire and south carolina. >> what else surprised you about the numbers jeannie? >> i was going to have to say ben carson is a bit of a surprise tonight if this holds at 10%.
i mean i agree with joe i think rubio is the story of the night, he's beating expectations so far, he's got claim victory on that point. but you know ben carson everybody said he was basically done and look at him dplomg fourthim coming infourth here. he's not going to win by any stretch of the imagination but look at him. >> how winning the ratings and the polls, that did not so far with almost 60% of the precincts reporting hasn't gotten him a win in iowa so far. >> we know the people outside of the political establishment they have a win regardless whether it's donald trump or ted cruz or ben carson, i don't think ben carson's days are going to continue. you can't come in fourth place and be a third of the antiestablishment candidates and still -- but if you add up the percentages of donald trump and ted cruz and ben carson the three people that the establishment hates, you're
looking at 65% of the republican voters in iowa that are going that direction. that is why there's such a desire among establishment, the political insiders perhaps after new hampshire to rally around one of their own, whether it's marco rubio, john kasich, right now it's a great night for marco rubio. >> let's let ali velshi speak the a republican insider in iowa, ali. >> former aid to hillary clinton, now at georgetown a''s suit, i asked him is this an antiestablishment thing and he said not as much as on the republican side. when david schuster said, there is a lot of votes that are not the way the establishment want them to go. >> i kind of bristle --
>> i you every time and you say i'm wrong. >> there isn't a establishment pick. i don't know if i agree that. frankly it doesn't matter. the people of iowa get the first crack at this. they're able to touch prod and talk to these people individually. part of the reasons these carve-outs exist is to talk to the candidates up close and personal. i would agree, the party's job is to be there when the people choose to nominate, and a bunch of people in washington matter, is sort of like a mythology. >> mo what do you think? i mean sean and i have this conversation at every debate and sean tells me at every debate that he's in the business of the republican party that the people choose. do we make too much of this antiestablishment thing? >> look, i think, sean is absolutely right, that's the job of the party, and sean is a
good, good friend and i'm going to feel for him if donald trump is the nominee and that's who he's got to support. but it's hard to say that the republican caucus goers in iowa aren't sending a clear message that they just haven't been thrilled with the direction that washington republicans have taken them today. not sean, not thearty p infrastructure, not rines prebis, who has done a heck of a job as the party chair, but the one breaking through to the top tier is the guy railing defense it. people in the democratic caucus actually want to continue look the same trajectory that barack obama has taken. so you're not seeing the same kind of repudiation against where the -- where sort of the washington centric focus of the party has been on the democratic side as you are on the republican side. i think that's just clear -- not
passing value judgment on that, that's clear based often how the results are coming in. >> sean has something to say on this. >> the idea that with eight years of preparation, i say this respectfully, you have a 74-year-old socialist gadfly from vermont running against her and it's neck and neck here heading into the final hour or so of tabulating the votes. i think if you are hillary clinton you look at this and it's a big sign of problems in terms of where the democratic party is and where you are. and as you go into new hampshire where you're down double digits that's oproblem. >> mo? >> yes, no i think tonight is a huge wakeup call if you are hillary clinton. there's no question about it. i think they've come on strong at the end, we'll see if it's strong enough, they've put a lot of time and energy into the organization on the ground and that organization may be what saves her in iowa tonight. and they better hope that they've done that. but you know look i think there's a lot of people in the
democratic party who worry that the campaign was sort of taken for granted for along period of time. you saw a lot of signs of life here at the end and that may have stunted some of sanders momentum if it plays out the way it looks like it's playing out right now. but i don't think there's any question that this is a little too close for comfort for the hillary people and now they've got to go out there and fight for every single vote in the next round of primaries. >> no kidding all right. let me ask you this, when you look at the number 3 candidate marco rubio coming in a lot closer as number 3 thank a lot of people expected. his campaign really went out of the way to match people's expectations. we thought this was a two man race with another tier, now this is a three man race. >> no question it's a good night for senator rubio. the big thing about iowa is that it's all about perception, and i think defeating those projections you can win and not do as well or you can lose but
do better than -- i think as far as expectations go there's no question that he's done well and beat i think what a lot of folks had what he needed to do tonight. >> sean always good to talk to us, thanks for making time, mo, good for talking to us. further on the iowa primary -- iowa caucuses, they're going to throw me out for saying that!
in the democratic caucuses in, 1% of the vote. it's still very tight between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. on the republican side it appears to be a three man race but ted cruz is out front as he has been throughout the evening, 62% of the vote in, donald trump second and marco rubio in third at 22%. michael shure is at roosevelt high school in des moines with more on his caucuses. michael. >> yes, john, the caucus just broke up. it was bernie sanders win, trean to ten. and martin o'malley didn't get any. and, that is what makes the iowa caucuses, kellen zimmer, you were an oem malley supporter, you have heard he is dropping
out. >> yes i heard that. we got some people to support the governor, political discourse, be that with the hillary campaign or the sanders campaign, it was good to explain why i appreciated governor o'malley. >> kellen, tell me you were one of the last people to go over to the other side. you went to o'mamalley to sande. tell me what you felt quickly. >> obviously i was torn. they are all three great candidates. i do realize hillary's experience but i do recognize that senator sanders has really got a political revolution started really gotten people engaged and i think that's going to be important especially in the coming years to see people in my generation actively engaged in politics. if this is a start i want to be part of that start to where we can continue that in the future
for engagement in my generation. >> kellen thank you so much. martin o'malley is having a party, going to go to that party and announcing he's suspending that campaign. the democrats two-person debate, another interesting thing, two-person debate between hillary clinton and bernie sanders this thursday night. a little more drama on the democratic side. john siegenthaler to you. >> martin o'malley getting 1% of the vote in iowa and it's a 1% race between hillary clinton and bernie sanders and the voters haven't been counted yet right david? >> right, if you look overall john, there's something like 69% reporting statewide. in the cities of iowa city the home of the university of iowa and also aimes iowa, the home of iowa state university, roosevelt high with michael shure, they're mostly younger voters, he is
going to pick up delegates there. this number to bernie sanders is going to tighten. johnson city, the home of story county, and aimes, they are lagging behind, bernie sanders is going to pick up some more delegates. will it be enough to close the 19 delegate gap? i'm not sure. this race is going to tighten and not the kind of scenario that hillary clinton have ever wanted. >> i don't know we may still have those pictures of drake university but they still were having trouble dividing and counting the votes because they had so many students in that crowd. bernie sanders could still win it tonight right jeannie? >> i absolutely could. i'm just thinking as david was talk, if you go back six months eight mocks a year who would ever have thought hillary clinton would be this close with someone like bernie sanders in iowa. absolutely shocking.
he has won a tremendous campaign and he has two to one support among young people. you go to these college opportunities to and bernie sanders could likely take, that could very well take it. >> what are republicans saying about this race joe? >> what they are saying this may not be a bellwether, but you never know. still too early to say. >> about the democrats the fact that hillary clinton is neck in neck with bernie sanders in iowa, they got to be cheering right? >> i think everyone would expect it to be a tight race. bernie sanders is doing as well in new hampshire. the question is does he have what it takes for the long haul? >> there is a similarity between republicans and democrats. you have some folks who want to burn the establishment down, donald trump, ted cruz and to extent ben carson. bit bernie sanders is the outside candidate that the
outside is worried about. he was a socialist and wasn't even a democrat now he's 14 points behind hillary clinton and big precincts to go. this is a sign that again, the rejection election, a number of pundits have described this, people outside the system want to shake it up they are resonating with both the democratic and republican party. >> let's not forget, he is definitely going to win new hampshire. if she loses iowa she's going to have lost the first two. >> i'm jug just looking a just e board, the narrowing gap between hillary clinton and bernie sanders and the announcement that martin o'malley is suspending his campaign. i'm more interested on the right side of that board, the republican caucus, how close the
race is between donald trump and ted cruz and plieb marc marco r. this is becoming a three-person race. kasich and bush, lu huckabee, cy fiorina not registering, remember there was a lot of that mainstream republican establishment money that wasn't being committed just yet. i think a lot of that is going to start over to marco rubio. i think we're looking to go to michael shure, i'm not 100% correct on that? sorry, dave leventhal is joining us again from the center for public integrity. dave you and i talked earlier about money might be sitting on the sidelines to see what happens after knit after new hampshire after south carolina, nevada after we start going but tonight from a republican side is a little bit more decisive,
to see the strength of performance by marco rubio and the absence of strength by any of the other more mainstream republican candidates. >> ali there is still some money sitting on the side, some really big names, in the koch brothers networks, who have not made a firm commitment to a single candidate. if you are marco rubio you're sitting here not even very excited even ecstatic about the potential in iowa but you're also counting dollars you don't have right now but you may have next week or next month because people are going to get on board with you now that you've had success and the polls have been taken for the first time. >> and we've actually seen that happen, particularly after debates right? a lot of the superpac money was sitting ton sidelines between jeb bush and marco rubio, and every time jeb bush seemed to underperform in a debate courtesy of donald trump, then more would go to marco rubio,
but jeb bush still leads that pac in terms of fundraising. >> he does ali and that 58 million right to rise, supporting jeb bush that was sitting in at the end of 2015, that may have dwindled a little bit put they still have tens of millions to bring to bear. the question is where are they going to use that for? where is jeb bush even going to be in a week? even in the age of big money an politics and superpacs and organizations, that can spend unlimited amounts of money on a candidate, you still have a candidate that needs to resonate with people and jeb bush doesn't seem to be that candidate. absent something totally unexpected happening in the next few weeks. >> why are these candidates that aren't resonating why do they stay in the race, rick santorum is a good example, he has
backers, financial backers, his fortunes have not had a direct relationship to the ability to finance his campaign. >> superpacs have loud more candidates to get into a race, even four years ago to some extent, duets them in the race earlier and also keeps them in the race longer. you may see that with some of the candidates sure, one, two may drop out tonight, of course martin o'malley it appears is going to be dropping out as well. but you may have had is the candidates who would absolutely have dropped out after iowa after underperforming and that may be it, they are going to stick around into new hampshire acknowledge south carolina, even if their poll numbers are a whole lot of nowhere. >> supertuesday about the middle of march, it may be that long before we have got some finality of the it, dave leventhal, thank
you for joining us. back to you. >> jack kingsman, served 22 years in the house, in washington now, you were on the telephone with the cruz campaign, what can you tell us? >> they're feeling really good. their numbers have been solid all night long. they have come out early, maintained the first place slot, their numbers have fluctuated two to three to 4% ahead of trump's but marco rubio is doing well too. the 99 counties, the 20,000 volunteers have really paid off for ted cruz. and you know on the subject of money the interesting thing is, he's leaving iowa with something like $19 million. he has an enormous grass roots fundraising machine, all over the country, and his numbers are going to -- his financial
numbers of numbers are going to go up as well, certainly as will rubio's and cruz -- i mean consume, carson's and you know anybody in the top tier is going to do well financially tonight. the reality is, i think this is ted cruz's night, they're feeling very, very good. i understood from them there are been a number of people to call it for him, but nothing official, they're being cautiously optimistic. >> 66% of the precincts in. i wanted to talk, do you think it's because ted cruz had a better organization than donald trump? >> i think it is. i think that on the ground in iowa these are people that are used to meeting presidential candidates and presidents running for reelection and so they're not ordinary people they are very activist. i talked also to congressman austin scott who is in the rubio camp and he sent me a video of one of the caucuses in a school
gymnasium. a crowded, would you have thought it was a state playoff game. the crowd, the town population was 10,000 people. the crowd was standing room only, never saw anything like it, not a political affair yet that's the way iowans are. as this gets settled very, very vigorous next couple of weeks, short week coming up fawn for the top five candidates in new hampshire and then they're all going to roll on to south carolina and nevada and supertuesday. so this is going to be an affair i think that's going to go on easily no. april. >> let's just talk about the issue -- easily until april. >> the issue ali brought up earlier, second third and fourth tier of candidates who really didn't even register tonight, you know, how long can you stay in a race when you get 1% of 2% of the vote?
>> well, as long as they pay their qualifying fee in new hampshire and south carolina, their name's going to be on the ballot so they might as well make a few modest visits. and i think the way caucus voters tend to be, you can always find a crowd that will listen to you. you can always i think in this day of social media run a campaign somewhat effectively but certainly cheaply. and hang in there. and i hate to say it but i think some of this is about book deals and some of this is about getting your name out there. i think that if you look at somebody like scott walker or bobby jindal or lindsay graham they figured they had better things to do with their time than continue on this marathon. so some of this apparently some people like it and some people can see that it's futile and then they go back to other things in their lives. >> all right jack thank you very much, you've gone on to other things. >> yes. >> let me just mention that donald trump is getting ready to
speak at least there are supporters there, we're expecting him to speak in a little while and hillary clinton has gathered a group of supporters as well. she's expected to speak as is ted cruz. and we will hear eventually tonight from all three of them. now once the dust is settled from tonight's iowa caucuses the focus of the 2016 presidential campaign shifts to new hampshire. we've been talking about it. it's the first primary vote of the season just over a week away. tuesday february 9th. lisa stark is in manchester new hampshire new hampshire with that. lisa. >> the candidates will be rushing over after the iowa caucuses is done. but you and i are talk about the candidates who hardly registered, kasich, christie, bush, already here in new hampshire campaigning. they are hoping new hampshire
will raise them out of that second and third tier. they are gambling on the voters here in the granite state. ohio governor john kasich is the number one candidate who opted out of iowa on caucus day. hoping to solidify his political future by winning over voters here. >> how important is your campaign here? >> very, very important, if i don't do well i'll cry but i'll get over it. >> he has a positive vision for america he says and he urged others to stop the negative ads. >> put your best on the air so that's what i think we ought to do. >> two of his republican opponents chris christie and jeb bush began their day in iowa but then headed street to new hampshire. all three as well as senator
marco rubio are trying to beat expectations to propel them onward. the four are locked in a race to become the top choice of the gop establishment. someone to counter conservative ted cruz and front runner donald trump. >> i mean for john kasich, for chris christie, for jeb bush, second place is very important in new hampshire. for any of them to spend all that time and not get at least a second place would be devastating for their campaigns. >> this time around kasich and christie have logged more miles here than any of the other candidates. each glad-handing at more than 150 stops, well surpassing the roughly 35 treks, trump has made to woo voters. the new york billionaire has done so with super-sized rallies. up-ending the tradition new hampshire style of small gatherings. trump has except for one time skipped the usual diners diners
circuit. these feisty five had trump on their minds. >> honest to god i really believe that trump -- >> president of the united states to say something like bomb the hell out of 'em. go for it! >> or he'll pick up his marbles and go home. >> it's my ball, i'm going home. >> he probably has what it takes to change things. >> on the democratic side, senator bernie sanders from neighboring vermont is expected to take the state that hillary clinton captured eight years ago during her first presidential bid. >> more independent voters, some 380,000 voters consider themselves independents. and in this open primary they are allowed to vote for any candidate in any party.
>> are the undeclared voters a wild card oar not? >> they are a wild card but not an ace. a lot of times you read well, this candidate is going to ride undeclared voters to victory. in practice it's tough to do that because there aren't that many who are these crossover voters everyone thinks they are. >> many independents including most of these women are still perusing the political menu. >> i kind of wait until almost the day of the primary as most of the people do in this state, they wait and wait and do it at the last minute. >> it's interesting we were at a jeb bush event tonight, quite a rousing crowd actually. a lot of people there said they still hadn't made up their mind. so the voters say they take their responsibility, their voting responsibility very seriously. this is the first primary. it is different than a caucus, john so although certainly iowa will have an impact the voters
here will have their say too. and as you know new hampshire has a way of winnowing down the field and also propelling other candidates onward. that's what these candidates are hoping for that they'll get that boost that they obviously need after the results in iowa. >> lisa thank you very much. hold the thought about new hampshire for a second while we look at the vote totals. and here we have the republicans. we now have 83% of the precincts reporting and ted cruz continues his lead over donald trump and marco rubio. and you say david, this is a record? >> yeah, so the previous record for republicans was 2012, 121,000. if you look at all of the vote totals for the republicans, you are already at 145,000 with the projection being it is going to end up somewhere 150,000 to 160,000 participating in the republican caucus. the reason this is so significant is because the ted cruz campaign had suggested that if the number was around 150,000
they are in trouble, donald trump would win. ted cruz has proved that his organization can handle a high turnout and turn them into vote. that is a big surprise. >> and 10% for ben carson as well. new hampshire where a lot of people are heading as we speak, ali velshi is out in iowa for that. ali. >> paul, an old friend of mine, for years i've relied on for political analysis paul good to see you. the moderate governors kasich, bush, christie, not even here in iowa on caucus day. they're all in new hampshire, why? >> pretty telling isn't it ali what is the top priority for those three governors, yeah it's all about right here in new hampshire. john kasich came back to new
hampshire on saturday, was there for the debate on thursday, came right back. pretty much the same degree for chris christie and jeb bush. the republican are group in iowa, pretty conservative, and new hampshire, more their cup of tea. all three of them spending a lot of time there but iowa doesn't matter much for them, here it's do or die in the granite state for those three guys. >> bush and kasich actually put a lot of time into new hampshire, i'm sorry kasich and christie have. what does it look between bush kasich and christie in new hampshire? >> you see donald trump, the clear front runner leaps and bounds ahead. i guess the battle is for second, third and fourth place. senator marco rubio plus the three governors all battling,
five to six percentage points, a fears battle now for second third and even fourth place. we'll see how many tickets there are out of new hampshire to continue to south carolina, ali. >> paul here in iowa the republicans go and caucus with republicans, democrats caucus with democrats. in new hampshire, independents can go and vote in which ever primary they want to vote for. and often independents are going to go where they have the most impact. what does that mean for how the independents are going to behave in new hampshire? >> independents rule the roost here. they are free go either way. they make up about 40% of the electorate here in new hampshire. that's a pretty sizable amount. they like to go where the action is ali. they want their vote to matter. if you look at the latest polls on the democratic side that has gone up in the last 24 hours, bernie sanders, if you average all these polls together, if the
action is on the republican side, the indies could go that way. i spoke an interview with jong kasich day today, top advisors, think that if they come out for kasich it will help their campaign. ali. >> thanks for being with us. >> ali thank you. >> back in new york i'm joined by jeannie and joe and david. is this a bigger win for ted cruz than it is a big loss for donald trump jeannie? >> i think it is a big win for ted cruz, it was a must win for ted cruz, iowa he visited every county, it was a must win and it looks like at least at this point he is going to win out. but i think real story is marco rubio neck and neck now with donald trump and within a percentage point. if he could even him or beat
him, donald trump ended up a close second or third, no one expected that, the des moines register had him winning. >> what happens to donald trump joe? >> you cannot discount the importance of ground game, having people on the ground to make sure your folks come out to caucus on caucus night. ted cruz did that in a huge way. he had a number of volunteers and the phone bank that was just unstoppable and that's really helped him a great deal tonight. >> david we just saw some of the poll numbers from new hampshire awith regard to republicans. donald trump is way out in front in new hampshire. so does this knock him down, a bit, moving into that race or not? >> well it might. because there's now some momentum for ted cruz, there are a lot of people in new hampshire who are now going to take a closer look at ted cruz who haven't heard so much about it. now those in iowa, there are a
lot of republicans and democrats who want to go with the winner. if somebody is just won the iowa caucuses they're going to get a hearing in new hampshire. the challenger, marco rubio, jeb bush or chris christie or john kasich, again the voters are splitting about 65-35, antiestablishment to establishment. there's going to be a battle between marco rubio and kasich and christie and bush as to who is going to be the alternative to donald trump and ted cruz, until that battle is sorted out, i think you're going to see donald trump and ted cruz rolling up the kind of numbers they have today in iowa. >> we have 84% of the vote in for the republican caucus goers. still some time here but clearly ted cruz has led throughout the night. >> he has led throughout the night and i think what's going to be fascinating is how donald trump specifi spins this. as you said he is going to come out and speak.
how someone's campaign has been pref asseprefaced with the facte will be the winner, tonight he has turned out the opposite. >> every time i see, i'm ahead of the polls, i'm ahead of the polls, every time i come on tv it translates. >> he's the master spin-man, he with will say new hampshire is our real test and we'll win by a big margin in new hampshire. >> we're waiting for ted cruz to seek, hillary clinton to speak. we'll have much more from our iowa caucuses right after this, don't go away.
that's going on, not just in this country, but around the world. >> what, as if there were no cameras here, would be the best solution? >> this goes to the heart of the argument. >> to tell you the stories that others won't cover. how big do you see this getting? getting the news from the people who are affected. >> people need to demand reform... >> we're here to provide the analysis... the context... and the reporting that allows you to make sense of your world. >> ali velshi on target.
>> and welcome back everyone. we thousand have associate ed press calling the race for ted cruz tonight, a big win in iowa, in the iowa caucuses for senator ted cruz, over donald trump. and marco rubio, trump and rubio neck and neck for second place. ali velshi is in des moines. i might mention ali that we've just gotten word that governor huckabee has suspended his campaign for president as well.
>> gentlemen just saw that tweet from him. you know i talked to him about a week and a half ago or two weeks ago and he said he thought there would be more support for him here, he won the iowa caucuses in 2008, he said if it didn't work he would have to think about it. we have ben carson rethinking, and i keep looking at how close marco rubio is to donald trump right now, the numbers i've got slightly different from the ones you've got, rubio at 22.9% and trump 24.5%. that was a bit of a take away, that marco rubio had been managing expectations about doing welcoming in third but he didn't want to talk about how well he was doing. as sean spicer said a little earlier you can lose and do well, if you do better than people thought or you can lose and do peerl if you do different
than some people thought. all you hear from donald trump is he is winning and on top and terrific ratings. donald trump broke out of that second place spot, on the democratic side, same story, bernie sanders hasn't been able to break into the number one spot but boy he last kept that gap narrow sometimes within 1 percentage opponent. we know he is going to into new hampshire very, very strong, the latest polls saying 18% ahead of hillary clinton and no martin o'malley anymore. very interesting night, more interesting than people thought it would be. the final take away john is those mainstream establishment governors who haven't been able to penetrate anything, chris christie, john kasich and jeb
bush not doing well. >> i want to go back to john kingston in washington. what does this mean for ted cruz? >> john what it means is he's going to have a lot of momentum going into new hampshire. even if he's not in the top slot there, he's got the money to survive and live another day. they already planned $19 million in the bank which is more than any other candidate so he's going to be in great shape financially. how do you run a campaign for super-tuesday in the south, in menzies and in massachusetts, i think he'minnesota and in massa. a doesn't night for carson. a horrible night as you pointed out to the governors, new hampshire is going to be important, but i really think it's going to be overshadowed by south carolina, nevada and
supertuesday. >> all right, david as we await both hillary clinton and donald trump and it should be ted cruz in just a little while, maybe we can just give us your sense of what unfolded tonight in iowa. >> well, and as joe pointed out organization is crucial. it's going to be crucial if hillary clinton ekes out a win over bernie sanders. visited 99 counties, had a superior organization on the republican side, that makes a big difference. but it's interesting to hear congressman kingston talk about organization, there are other candidates who ignored iowa, exphaib he sets ujohn mccain, sg battle in south carolina. you win iowa maybe you're not competitive in new hampshire or get beaten by double digits but
you set up your fire wall in the south carolina and the south, ted cruz is sending a signal to the southern states. the evangelical vote is not as important there as it is in the south in south carolina and in iowa. and so that's why some of the moderate governors feel they may have a chance to come in in that second tier. it's going to be hard because the momentum coming out of iowa is really going to be there for donald trump and ted cruz and now for marco rubio. marco rubio got that big endorsement in iowa. christie got the endorsement in new hampshire but marco rubio is going to be very, very strong heading into new hampshire. >> jeannie, hillary clinton led and led but it could go either way. how does she come out of this
with this close? >> within seven delegates, that's incredibly close. what she's got to do is hope that she hangs onto that lead, she's got to declare a big victory out of tonight, try move to fl new hampshire where she's likely to lose. >> we're about to hear from marco rubio. >> thank you, thank you. [♪ singing ] >> thank you, thank you. so -- so this is the moment they said would never lap! happen. for months they told us we had no chance. for months they told us because we offered too much optimism in a time of anger we had no chance. for months they told us because we didn't have the right endorsements or the right political connections we had no chance. they told me we have no chance because my hair was not gray
enough and my boots were too high. they told me i needed to wait my turn that i needed to wait in line. [cheering and applause] >> but tonight, tonight, here in iowa, the people of this great state have sent a very clear message: after seven years of barack obama we are not waiting any longer to take our country back! [cheering and applause] >> this is not a time for waiting. for everything that makes this nation great now hangs in the balance. this is a time when we need a president that will truly preserve and protect and defend the constitution of the united states. not one that undermines, attacks and ignores the constitution of the united states. this is the time for a president
who will defend our second amendment rights. not a president who undermines them. this is the time for a president that will rebuild the u.s. military, because the world is a safer and a better place, when the united states has the most powerful military in the world. this is not ordinary election. 2016 is not just a choice between two political parties. 2016 is a referendum. it is a referendum on our identity as a nation, and as a people. in america there are only two ways forward for us now: we can either be greater than we have ever been, or we can be a great nation in decline. if bernie sanders or hillary clinton get elected -- if they were to win -- we will be a great nation in decline. if they win, obamacare becomes
permanent. if they win, these unconstitutional executive orders from this president become permanent. if they win, our military continues to decline. and if they win, the balance of our supreme court will be controlled by liberal justices for over a decade or longer. they cannot win. hillary clinton is disqualified from being the president of the united states. [cheering and applause] >> because she stored classified and sensitive information on her e-mail server because she thinks she's above the law. and hillary clinton can never be commander in chief. because anyone who lies to the families of people who have lost their lives in the service of this country can never be commander in chief of the united states.
[cheering and applause] >> and so tonight, i thank you here in iowa. i thank you, because tonight we have taken the first step, but an important step, towards winning this election. if i am our nominee and i will be our nominee thanks to what you have done here in this great state -- [cheering and applause] >> -- when i am our nominee we are going to unify this party and we are going to unify the conservative movement. [cheering and applause] >> when i'm our nominee we are going to grow conservative movement. we are going to take our message to the people who are struggling paycheck to paycheck. to the students living under the burden of student loans. to the families struggling to raise their children with the right values, we will take our message to them and we will bring them to our side. when i am your nominee we will unite our party we will grow our party and we will defeat hillary
clinton or bernie sanders or whoever they nominate. [cheering and applause] >> i want to thank and all powerful and mighty god. for the chance that he has given us to be a part of this endeavor here in iowa. it's been a phenomenal experience. i want to thank my wife and my family. [cheering and applause] >> i want to congratulate my friend senator ted cruz, he worked really hard here in iowa and i earned his victory tonight. >> i want to thank another good friend of mine governor mike huckabee for his service to our country to the state of arkansas. he is announcing tonight he is suspending his campaign.
we have tremendous admiration for governor huckabee and we thank him for all he's done. [applause] >> two centuries ago an extraordinary generation living in one place at one time here in america, colonists of an english colony, thraird their independence from the most powerful empire in the world. that our rights come from our creator, they do not come from our government. and over the rest, two century history of the most extraordinary country in the mankind. i was raised by people who came to this country, with nothing. they barely spoke english at the time. they had no money. my father stopped going to school when he was nine years old. he had to go work. he would never go to school, he would work for the next 70 years
of his life. when my parents arrived here in this country they struggled. they were discouraged, but they persevered, less than a decade after they riefd here with nothing -- arrived here with nothing, my father a bartender on miami beach they owned a home, not a mansion but a safe and stable home in a safe and stable neighborhood. decades later they would retire with dignity and security. and most important thing of all for them, they left all four of mayor children with a life better than their own. this is the purpose of my parents' life to give their kids us the chance all the things they never could. that's not just my story. that's our story. that's america's story. that's the story of your parents, you know the stories. of your pairns who sacrificed and -- of your parents who sacrificed and gave up so much so you could be what they could not. it's the stories of those parents today who are doing the
same for their children. iit is this america that is special and it is this that we fight preserve. this is the kind of country that i want to leave for my children. this is the kind of country your children deserve to inherit as well and this is what we must now decide whether we will remain that kind of country or whether we will be the first generation to lose it. it's an important choice. and one that each generation before us has had to make. for america is not a special country by accident. america is a great nation, because each generation before us did their part. each generation before us sacrificed, they confronted their challenges they embraced their opportunities and for over two centuries, each generation has left the next better off than themselves. now the time has come for us to do the same. now the moment has arrived for this generation of americans to rise up to the calling of our heritage. now the time has come for us to
take our place and do what we must. and when i'm elected president of these great united states we will do our part. [cheering and applause] >> when i -- [cheering and applause] >> when i am elected president, when we together achieve this victory, we will embrace all of the principles that made america great and we will apply them to the unique challenges of this new century. and when our work is done, here is what history will say of this generation. it will say that we lived in the early years of this new century, in an uncertain and difficult time. but we remembered who we we're.
we rose up to the challenge of our time. we confronted our problems and we solved them. and because we did, the american dream didn't just survive. it reached more people and changed more lives than ever before. because we did our children and our grandchildren grew up to be the freest and the most prosperous americans that ever lived because we did what needed to be done. the 21st century wasn't just as good as the 20th century. it was better. it was a new american century. [cheering and applause] >> this is the task before us. and i thank my lord and savior jesus christ, i thank god for allowing me the opportunity to come this far with each of you. i am grateful to you iowa. you believed in me, when others
didn't think this night would be possible. when perhaps you were lost in the daily narrative. when some suggested that perhaps it was time to step aside, you believed in me. you walked with us. you made the calls and knocked on doors. you made a huge difference tonight. we are going to be back. i will be back here, in october, next year -- >> marco rubio speaking to his supporters tonight. he comes in number 3, but clearly, feeling good about his performance. as you can see ted cruz declared the winner in the iowa caucuses. donald trump second. but it's very close between he and marco rubio. i just want to point out, that if you look at the democratic numbers, hillary clinton and bernie sanders are very, very close. they're only six delegate difference between hillary clinton and bernie sanders and it's 88% of the vote reporting.
michael shure is live at ted cruz's party headquarters in des moines. and mike, tell us what they're saying there. >> yeah, well you know john there's obviously jubilation here. they have run an excellent campaign here in iowa, we have witnessed it and been on the bus with them. ted cruz is the first candidate john to announce his candidacy for president. he did so in march and since march, what he has done is assured people in iowa that he could leave iowa as a conservative christian with an organized movement in the south. that was very important. he had pastors organized in 99 county, cruz visited all that 99 county, what they call the full grassley. nobody had anticipated donald trump, they also santa time governor scott walker of wisconsin was thought to be able
to coalesce, to join the evangelical vote the business the conservative the establishment vote with the republicans. cruz said no, that conservative christian vote is going to me, he organized and he really beat odds here and there's real jubilation here. because they feel is he a candidate, a republican candidate that can win as a conservative here in iowa and then go on to the south and not fade as other have. rick santorum and mike huckabee as we have mentioned so often john. >> did you get a sense that cruz supporters expected this? obviously they want their candidate to win but did they really expect to win tonight? >> you know, john that's a tough question to answer. when i was here three weeks ago yes, they were very, very confident. the feeling i've had since wednesday -- >> i'm going to interrupt you for a second because donald trump is taking the stage, let's listen in to the crowd.
>> thank you very much. i love you people. i love you people. thank you. >> unbelievable. i have to start by saying i absolutely love the people of iowa. unbelievable! unbelievable! [applause] >> so on june 16th, when we started this journey, there were 17 candidates. i was told by everybody, do not go to iowa. you could never finish even in the top 10. and i said but i have friends in iowa. i know a lot of people in iowa. i think they'll really like me. let's give it a shot. they said don't do it. i said i have to do it. and we finished second. and i want to tell you something: i'm just honored. i'm really honored. and i want to congratulate ted
and i want to congratulate all of the incredible candidates including mike huckabee owho's become a really good friend of mine. so congratulations to everybody. congratulations. [applause] >> i want to thank all of the folks that worked with us. we had a great team and we will continue to have a great team and we're just so happy with the way everything worked out. and most importantly, i have to thank my wife, and lara and eric and vanessa and don, i think don and eric i think you did about six speeches today. so i just want to thank my family. they have been so amazing and so supportive. and we've had every indication. we have a poll, we're 28 points ahead, new hampshire, we love new hampshire, we love south carolina.
and we're leaving tonight and tomorrow, afternoon, we'll be in new hampshire. and that will be something special. it's going to be agreat week and we're going to be
up here next week and i think we're going to be proclaiming victory i hope. i will say this: i don't know who's going to win between bernie and hillary, i don't know what's going to happen with hillary, bigger problems than the ones she's got in terms of nomination he. buhe -- nominations, but we have got so many indications in polls that we beat her and beat her easily. we will go on to get the republican nomination and easily beat hillary or bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there. iowa, we love you, we thank you, you're special, we will be back many, many times. in fact i think i might come here and buy a farm. i love it, okay? thank you. thank you everybody.
thank you very much. >> quick speech from donald trump, one of the shortest of the season right? >> you know that land prices in iowa are now going up because donald trump is going to be a buyer. very unconventional political speech, an eye on your next contest. eye on new hampshire. he has thrown out all the conventional wisdom of politics. even though he ruined himself with the expectations by claiming that he is going to win. >> i will mention that jeannie has said all along she didn't think he was going to be the nominee. >> and what we have mentioned is that david schuster has to sing to me. >> we're going to settle on it on the 11:00 hour about michael shure and warping up his voice.
>> no, no. let's go to the democratic numbers, this is the most interesting race of the flight it is the closest number, 628 delegates to 625 delegates. it is very possible that hillary clinton will lose iowa tonight. what does that mean for her campaign if she loses, does it matter either way if she's so close? >> it matters so much, even those though she ekes it out. new hampshire has always been her fire wall. we've seen bernie sanders getting an increasing number of flormtendorsements in south car. >> after new hampshire eurl see you'llsee a bunch of republicanp
out. >> all right, ali velshi in des moines. >> this event in des moines is not finished yet, within half a percentage point. >> so incredibly close, a lot of supporters at his headquarters are really energized. although they were very proud of him never thought he would make it this far. they're hoping he comes here and speaks flit. now one of the things that was really critical was that youth vote. we saw that at drake university, a lot of folks came out. almost 100% more at that particular precinct than the last time around. and behind you can see that crowd, it looks like he may be coming up to speak. again, it's a lot of excitement right now. again, no one thought he'd make it this far and it bodes well for the campaign they believe even though he's not number 1.
but we should turn to him to hear what he's about to say. ali. >> sorry, it's almost impossible to hear you it's so loud out there. we're going to check back with you and when bernie sanders comes back to speak. john back to you. >> so far, ted cruz a big winner, donald trump and marco rubio second and third. the big race is between hillary clinton and bernie sanders and it's not over yet david. >> it is not over, she has lost voters on the democratic side under 302 to 1. these were crucial for barack obama's success, and a lot of the establishment will say, wait a minute, she is about to lose the iowa caucuses based on the
precincts that are still out. she may lose to a guy who's five years older than her, who wants to burn down wall street, provide sing payor health care and provide free education. things that are not pragmatic, cannot be done. >> you both think it's a huge loss for hillary clinton? >> i think it is for her. >> it's measured she knows she's a very smart candidate. her people know there was going to be a tough race, if she loses to bernie sanders it's not going to be the end of the world. >> martin o'malley saying thanks to everybody. who's getting out of the race. >> if hillary clinton wanted to wrap up this nomination early she is now facing the prospect of a long drawn out fight floimtion where shnawmtion where a lospend a lot of money.